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Is the Su0026P 500 in a Bubble? [1928-2024 Study]

Nathan Winklepleck, CFA 6 views

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Trailing vs fwd P/E is a massive difference Also you are ignoring interest rates for alternative investments/benchmarking
Comment from : @wesselmartens1621

125 speed guys
Comment from : @wesselmartens1621

JPM graph is much more intuitive than yours, flipping axis confused the heck out of me
Comment from : @sumitomoO0O

👍
Comment from : @paulevans2246

You would think that over the long term, investing more aggressively when the market is down vs when the market is up would yeild better results
Comment from : @JC-vy1bo

Agreed Although some investors look to their investments as a source of income while others use it is a means to grow or preserve their wealth
Comment from : @edwinsvoboda8067

Very interestingbrI wonder what the S&P PE ratio would be if the top 5-10 performers were excluded from the calculation In other words, how much of the fluctuation is driven by the rise and fall of companies at the top of the list?
Comment from : @fepeerreview3150

You produce knowledge You are a paradigm for the CFA society
Comment from : @fotiosval

Sorry, I can't see the link for the other video
Comment from : @pch6721

Yes but the US Fed is no longer tightening and the rumor going into the election is of an easing cycle be begun this being telegraphed by many even including the Fed at times all Year 2024 What all risk assets dogold, real estate, US equitiesis what they do So if all prices never do anything but go upwhy not be selling gold bMASSIVELY/b here, right? Or is that also the one price that can never go down too?
Comment from : @doolittlegeorge

Hey Nathan, why do we even care about PE when everything is valued in fiat USD? In this inflationary path forward, it is quite obvious that in a long time horizon you'll never be wrong to buy the S&P
Comment from : @Fenris__

Great video! I have a basket of ETFs that I buy every month I moved a big chunk back to cash this week, but I plan to keep buying monthly Basically reducing my downside risk once I saw the RSP ETF crossed below it's 50 day moving average, but continuing to invest monthly Did your analysis show much difference in downside risk between the two strategies (buying only above 25 or only below)?
Comment from : @RickTalbotWriting

This was an interesting video, thanks for your thoughts The S&P 500 was founded in 1957 though
Comment from : @tradingfundamentals

Nice analysis! Similar study with Shiller PE would have been better though
Comment from : @michaelbaier600

Forward PE is totally useless, if a recession hits
Comment from : @wheatandtares9764

Love your work! Thanks What is the definition ofbrLong term earnings ? Is it 5, 10 or 15 years? if your time horizon is 10 or 15 years, should you still buy schd over SP? Or just for the next 5 years?
Comment from : @jonathankrimer

Moments like these make me thankful I was a chemistry student The number of people that can't read graphs is actually incredible My mind would have instantly dismissed the relevance based on the correlation factor alone
Comment from : @justinh826

I'm flattered he's doing a video on my trading history
Comment from : @cap10newport95

Good stuff Nathan I think we are likely to see more downside However, I certainly agree that now is a great time to dollar cost average and buy into the market
Comment from : @JohnBowl14690