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Is The Su0026P 500 Overvalued?

Toby Newbatt 38 views

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your comparaison seems ridiculous megnificant 7 makes only 25 of the index that menas 1500 is coming from so call tech companies remaining 4500 is coming up from so call old companies junkies brhistorically P/$ was under 15 now well above 28brbrneed 50 correction if not today in next 3 years
Comment from : @ukkk123

@Toby Newbatt I just came back from the future and have to say: No, it's not overvalued! Because lots of money has been brought into existence (and into the market) during Corona, therefore we have to raise the bar that says 'overvalued'
Comment from : @POPnRollApps

Toby - how do I invest in bit coin on trading 212 ?
Comment from : @Liverpoolfcchat

bUsing the Principle of Compound Interest in Crypto will change your life!!/b brbrIt has been a money printer for me and I’ve been making over $80k monthly without any trading experience You can do same too
Comment from : @CoryLafund

Nice analysis! Another aspect, is the expansion of the M2 global money supply, and its effect on currency debasement Raoul Pal has done some interesting analysis on this, suggesting that the growth in the S&P 500 maps to the growth in the US M2 money supply But agreed, there also has to be underlying future profitability to justify the growth in the index
Comment from : @Dickie101

Warren Buffet very recently sold 100 of his S&P500 holding 🤔
Comment from : @anghubbynimsm7854

I understand the take the longest view, DCA and never be influenced by the headlines perspective, however at sixty three I’m happy moving to a fifty percent bond portfolio and hopefully reducing volatility and protecting what may be a peak before a drop, as I’m increasingly thinking about sequence of returns risk Fifty percent of my portfolio will keep growing if the market has another year or two before the crash and the other fifty percent can be transferred back from bonds to equities if there is a significant reversion to mean……who knows!
Comment from : @neilcook1652

The market's been a rollercoaster lately, and my portfolio is feeling the heat With all the downturns, I can't help but question if holding on is the right move or if it's time to cut my losses This video had some great insights, but I’m still feeling lost Fellow investors, how are you navigating this chaos? I’d really appreciate some advice!
Comment from : @perryjames223

You can use the mathemathics in your brain to TRY to predict what the S&P will do, but I assure you that he will remain standard and poor, unlikely new one the SPX6900, they put the entire stock market into a tiny crypto coin
Comment from : @pedrobiohazard

I think all analysts are wasting their time on things based on the pastbrusa has printed a lot of money without creating any assetsbrpeople have only 3 choices gold, real estate , stocksbrbrexample now people have 1000 dollor cash( previously only 100 used to be which is excess of 900)brwhat people do?brbuy expensive things Iphone 1300 bucks( other smart phones cost 100 bucks) similar sports cars etc brout 900 excess money what to do buy whatever u like brbrbrstock market will stop growing only if 900 is exctra money is fully spent( in the meantime another 900 is getting printed)brbuy this logic nasdaq will readh 100k , SP500 may 30 K etc
Comment from : @ukkk123

Sounds like some liberal billionaires are trying to sabotage Trump and Elon by crashing the market
Comment from : @---df5sr

the big question is what would you do with your spare cash if you didn't buy shares ? Real Estate is low return and the conjecture is not exciting, bonds have not been interesting for decades, cash is a sure way to lose money I guess it's the main reason shares are rising, there are no real alternative and for certain people there are piles of cash lying around
Comment from : @TheAntoine191

If you're looking for passive income, try Moonacy Protocol It works steadily
Comment from : @KorhanBugra

The future lies in crypto exchanges like Moonacy protocol I’m earning steadily and withdrawing $1,000 every week
Comment from : @EvAkdaG

Actually Exports IS part of GDP
Comment from : @guillesrl7569

Nice video ! Started my investment journey thanks to you 👏🏻👏🏻
Comment from : @natanrenard4428

TLDR: This time is different, therefore valuation metrics mean nothing A famous quote comes to mind: "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" (economics professor Irving Fisher, one month before black Monday 1929)
Comment from : @zweidritteleinfach2087

What about the reversing of the bond yield curve inversion? btw, I used my time machine and the market crashes in May 2025 when Trump declares war on Denmark, Panama and Canada 💥
Comment from : @Doctor__M

Great video, dispelled a lot of rumours
Comment from : @01302

Only investing in index funds is being lazy Just do some research and pick quality stocks
Comment from : @miguelfbdom

Id say if its 45 the price from 1982 to 2025, how much inflation we have had in 40 years the market could be under valued lol
Comment from : @Healthandwealth101_Official

I looked back on the S&P history and it is not overvalued I saw values below 10 and values over 120 and those values stayed that way for months before a correction Currently we are 27 But earnings are growing higher than that rate so forward earnings are close to 20 Google PE is 23 so very undervalued Nvidia will be around 30 after the 20th next Thursday Growing around 80 for the next few years There are stock at buy levels If stock market drops it will be even cheaper so even better buy
Comment from : @mikedearden777

Hi Toby, great post, very informative! I’ve been investing for over 25 years and I’m with you all the way! Just keep investing regularly and you will receive your rewards👍
Comment from : @neil7365

Thank you for this
Comment from : @michaelswami

I don't think so Some will crash which have bad fundamentals
Comment from : @ArksideGames

You'll see articles like "this analyst predicted the last 2 crashes, here's what he says about 2025"brbrOne has to wonder if correctly calling bear and bull markets has more to do with being a permabear or a permabull you'll correctly call every bear market if you call every market a bear market Same goes for the other side of the coin I say DCA every penny you won't need next month
Comment from : @kmp8563

Rather than assuming that all future expectations are fully reflected in a share price simply because traders agree on it, I ask this—how many traders buy shares based on genuine study and understanding of the business versus those who are merely seeking a return on investment? I’d wager that 99 of investors and traders neither truly believe in the companies they own nor fully grasp what those businesses do Instead, they view stocks as a vehicle to store value, protecting their money from the erosive effects of inflation Imagine if the world had a store of value that would make the horrible effects of inflation redundant? What if I told you we already do
Comment from : @AdamEllul

learnt some technical (for me) stuff today Thanks Toby :)
Comment from : @HelenS-q5n

So it’s different this time?
Comment from : @garethwynn01

Warren Buffett selling Apple and hoarding cash—just risk management or a major red flag? Would love to hear if anyone is following his lead! 🔥💰
Comment from : @WealthyChronicle

I just buy 50/50 sp 500 and vwrp
Comment from : @harvinluchmun7507

Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, waiting may not be the best decision for investors It might sound basic or generic, but getting in touch with a financial adviser was how I was able to outperform the market and raise a profit of $450,000 since Jan 2022 with the help of my advisor Abigail Ann Ryan For me, its the most ideal way to jump into the fin-market these days
Comment from : @Maryesther1

P/E ratio is meaningless Most companies deliberately avoid posting profits so that they are not subject to corporation taxes Taxes are worse now, so P/E ratios are up Its nothing to do with the valuation of the companies
Comment from : @mrscreamer379

exactly the "buffett indicator" is total BS, when most of the revenue of the largest companies are not even from the US, so why have the presumption that the market should only be judged by the average income of ordinary Americans P/E is different because the majority in value of the companies are now tech companies, which have always had a higher P/E to begin with Meanwhile, banks and energy have always had the lowest
Comment from : @DonLee1980

clear and concise pov toby, great work as always "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" WB
Comment from : @AlixLondon

Does it matter how much a share of s&p 500 costs or are they all the same? Thank you I'm new to investing
Comment from : @travelwithmik3583

Thanks very much for your videos, they're very illustrative and useful for newcomers like me
Comment from : @IzquierdoFogued

Could you make video on how to calculate how much tax to pay with trading212 invest account? Will be cashing out before new tax year in April
Comment from : @azzual1

Very well said Toby!!
Comment from : @garethwalters2909

Toby Hoarding cash can help with the mental side of investingbrMarket goes down you’re happy because you get to deploy some of that cash at a discount Market goes up you’re happy because you’re making moneybrLook at it as dip Insurance that makes you 5
Comment from : @tyeng1295

Channel that promotes investing says extremely bad fundamentals are actually good and you should keep investing
Comment from : @MrDoctorDave

Agreed
Comment from : @BonkersAboutAlice

The title gave me a heart attack , but you always give good advice and I’m in it for the long haul or at least until I retire
Comment from : @chrismajor69

Thanks Toby - Good clarifying video I've increased by cash assets, from 3 years to 4 years Still heavily into longer term investments, but I'd expect a bit of a slower period But more concerning for me is not the fundementals, as over time I am comfortable the markets will continue to increase over the longe term, but more the volatility being injected following the US election and the unpredictability of the personalities at the top Hence, having a bit more cash available to weather the storms Thanks again!
Comment from : @MakeItCount-55

Listening to this whip o do my weekly deposit to vuag
Comment from : @tjcochius6331

Thank you Toby, excellent content as alwaysbrWaiting for April to contribute to my existing stocks and shares ISAbrShould I put £20K in on day one or £1666 each month?brThank you
Comment from : @colinholder6080

well, at age 94, I would say he is prepping for retirement Global index is on most investors portfolios so shouldnt be overly concerned about one companies money stockpile There will always be innovation in the world so keep on truckin as they say
Comment from : @minimad8793

Interesting Tx!
Comment from : @debbyshapiro2125

Over the last 20 years you say that Berkshire returned 467brbrThats wrong It's 757
Comment from : @user-wf2wi5wc2k

You are the absolute boy Toby! brbrSide note- I know you’re an IE user, do you think they will be here in 20-30 years?
Comment from : @SMARVEN

Huge thanks to the guy in the comments who recommended Moonacy Protocol—you really helped me out Thanks a ton 🤝🤝
Comment from : @SherilBarr

The one point that sticks out with Buffets cash pile at the moment is that he's always said that Berkshire Hathaway would never have money lying around just for the sake of it They always like to have their money working for them in some way, so to now be building a bigger pile than ever just raises some red flags It's rarely a bad move to just follow what the big money is doing Long term DCA into an index is still the way though
Comment from : @wedgtable

You should have many more subscribers A real financial education 🫡
Comment from : @Oliver-dx5vd

does this after those who invest for like 2 decades
Comment from : @healthhabour

Cool video 👍🏼, but just FYI, there are other investment options, like Moonacy Protocol Earn on exchanges and get a stable 15 daily
Comment from : @VinNichols-s4r

UK equity stocks are well outperforming US ones already this year Interesting times !
Comment from : @SteveTurnbull666

I used to think it was just about buying dip in market, but I didn’t realize there are strategies for managing risk and actually making a profit Now I feel kinda stuck since I’m not seeing any gains in my portfolio Is there any recommendations on what I should consider? I’d really appreciate it!
Comment from : @TonyVear-z8y

The thing is the price of stocks are valued against fiat currency that is a depreciating asset With a few years of high inflation, the values need to go up just to stay level in teal term
Comment from : @sw793

I think valuation (this time is different)in current age is hard to measure what expensive and what is not ,today everyone investing in us markets and it is a huge factor for current valuation and there's some intangible assets with certain business that are hard to valuate brOnly a liquidy crisis will shake the water
Comment from : @persieprince9345

Comment from the future: Dump It
Comment from : @HyperVegitoDBZ

Im buying gold
Comment from : @coolmonkey619

Great video! Very informative compared to other videos out there creating click bait! Thank you
Comment from : @jackjones3919

Toby excellent video mate, I will continue to DCA in
Comment from : @robertritchie7464

Toby what indexes are you investing in? Particularly Vanguard
Comment from : @scumboss

Great video as always, looking forward to your next one Toby
Comment from : @valerienewbatt9678

Really cant compare S&p 500 to other markets based on valuation
Comment from : @timetraveller3063

I’ll continue to invest into a global index and not be concerned about trends
Comment from : @bonditltd5346

Look at the PE Ratio of the big 5 of s&p500, they are in bubble
Comment from : @augustineo6190

Hi Toby, a very important and timely video to keep us tuned in to the end goal Very interesting about the S and P 500 and its influence from outside America Always love to hear about Warren Buffet Thank you
Comment from : @turner1622

Revolut or Trading212? What do you suggest?
Comment from : @ΓιώργοςΠ-ι6χ

The world population is growing therefore more consumers and more customers
Comment from : @balazsKelemenUK

Everybody I've met that has invested in the stock market have lost money Usually, a lot of money And they got out, never to returnbrYou got to ask yourself, why is a guy who talks like he's successful in the market and knows what he is doing why is he grinding on Youtube, which being a YT content creator pays less by a factor of 100x than a job at Taco Bell
Comment from : @spitfeueranna

Hi Toby, great video once again!brbrCould you do a video on best strategies to liquidate stocks once you e reached retirement age and want to start spending your investments and avoid as much tax as possible I’ve seen some stuff on buy borrow die is that a strategy available to us in the UK, would you recommend this opposed to selling portfolio?brbrThanks Toby
Comment from : @philliprobinson7810

Have you done a video on micro strategy or strategy B as it is now
Comment from : @alexpowell6334

Hi, and thanks for your awesome contents as always Could you please make a video about “ Artificial Intelligence & Robotics etfs” as well, which one to buy and so cheers Keep on doing the good work
Comment from : @cysupersonic8052

I recommend everyone to find the book titled Uncommon Paths to Wealth from Cryptic Lore It changed my life
Comment from : @hyugahyuga3761

Amazing video as always!!! Keep it up Toby!!
Comment from : @StopDropandRoll17

Very cool video Thanks
Comment from : @arbitool

best lesson ive learned is that no one can tell what is going to happen have faith that it will be fine, and in case it crashes, have a long term goal as it will most likely go back up in a year or two
Comment from : @usm1le

Everybody knows that they'll inevitably be a crash at some point in the future Absolutely nobody knows when the next one will occur 🤷
Comment from : @paulfarr7

What I am also trying to get my head around is the increasing number of passive DCA investors for the long termbrbrThey (we) invest rain or shine and that surely adds money to the market and raises prices in the long termbrbrWhat do you think??
Comment from : @Felikios

The best is to invest in the S&P 500 Equal Weight, which has a good PER
Comment from : @MarcGameplays

The 2025 dip and volatility is inevitable though AI isn’t working and it’s time to call out these companies pumping it to inflate their share price
Comment from : @davidlong8217