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The Shiller Cape PE Ratio and Investing Returns (Su0026P 500 data)

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 18 views

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shiller PE can stay high for decade before return normal
Comment from : @tongtongwang

We are approaching Nov, 2021 valuation SP500 may peak with another 30 upside or so and Nasdaq another 40 ? It seems bear market is coming in 1 to 2 years I estimate market crash around end of 2025 judging the margin data is still slightly below exponential trendline
Comment from : @finalmatrix

Also can you send the best fit curve equation for those 10 and 15 year graphs?
Comment from : @DevinSmith1486

ty for the video I've been trying to tell people about this
Comment from : @DevinSmith1486

at the moment it seems that people dont care about these parameters though My fear is that they will keep buying even with weak fundamentals
Comment from : @stex83

Lmao when you said dead person
Comment from : @MathiasHagen-b5v

What is your thoughts on AGI effects on employment and real estate investing?
Comment from : @chrissprague4025

You will never gain
Comment from : @gioblack4689

Current environment is hard for discussions on valuation As you have discussed multiple times, the value of currency is very likely to collapse significantly in a coming decade and these thing have a hierarchy in high inflation environment Long term bonds < short term bonds / cash < stocks < "real assets" < gold(/BTC), the more the inflation the more the value is destroyed and always more in the left side BTC and gold are both at all time high now btw My guess is that those markets are sniffing something
Comment from : @potomacXX

Good video, thank youbrbrIt’s funny, I got a commercial video of US former moron trump begging for money since his so broke, during your videobrbrHe needs to watch your video to learn how to earn honest money vs begging
Comment from : @MAchannel2024

In a top stock market usually rimes with a lot of IPO's Not there yet
Comment from : @mbg9650

I've heard people argue against shiller pe because it's backwards looking, and markets are forward looking
Comment from : @hman2912

The problem with China stocks is the country dictatorship and how foreign investors are considered For instance, will they ever receive a dividend from being a shareholder? If no, it's the greather fool game
Comment from : @mbg9650

You look like a Playboy now Sven
Comment from : @javiervazquez9591

Nominal return is all that matters let's say Shiller earning yield is only 3 but inflation boosted yield is 8 you still need to invest or lose 5 wealth to inflation
Comment from : @FrenShaped

Hair looking good Sven
Comment from : @jus-tinkin

Valuable message thank-you!
Comment from : @johnmcquaid7524

Lol and very true about the election Whoever wins, it will be another old rich white guy
Comment from : @pongop

China is uninvestable The political risk is too high, the chance of your investment going to 0 is quite high, like it was with Russia That's not value investing, it's gambling You're just taking a gamble on the political risk instead of the stock price
Comment from : @cookiejar01

Less you are indexing, who cares?brbrThere are always great stocks that are undervalued in any "market"
Comment from : @mjs28s

China will never have equity ownership even close to the US, for one, because you don't "own" Chinese equities Not even a Chinese citizen owns the equity let alone an American or European They are literally communist, how could one (especially a foreigner) "own" equity in a communist state owned asset, on top of which is the Wests #1 adversary which we switch between playing nice or sanctioning and banning each other year to year I've thought about it but it is too risky To me that's just musical chairs of who gets their assets seized first by the CCP Their stocks are so cheap but for a reason, sure you can gamble and catch a 2 or 3x but it's not like the US market is lacking gambling opportunities either And even though the US has uncountable amounts of problems, you can at least rest assured your assets wont get seized if the powers that be feel scared on a particular day
Comment from : @jsedge2473

Thank you very much for this great video Do you consider the election of Trump a risk for chinese stocks as it was in 2018/2019?!
Comment from : @adham7912

I can see that Sven invested in a new hairstyle, huge returns expected!
Comment from : @luigigetsu

It is quite obvious that the stock market is pricey The question is what are the alternatives? If Chinese themselves are not excited about their stock market, probably they know it better Of course, I could make a risky contrarian bet on China with 25 portfolio, but what do I do with the rest? Pick some value traps? I think bonds or cash are even more risky than stocks in the long term, and it is likely the stock market is highly priced, because it predicts accelaration of money devaluation
Comment from : @xaidas9945

Feels like I'm back in stats class 😄 Thanks sven
Comment from : @happya8199

Do you mind sharing with us how much percent you feel comfortable with holding in Chinese Stocks of your portfolio?
Comment from : @ME-CFS-LongCovid-Help

How about combining Shiller PE with VIXR sq should be above 05 with only these two factors
Comment from : @BarsonlineOrg2013

Solution dollar cost average
Comment from : @Neddie2k

Love the haircut! Thanks for another great video! :)
Comment from : @andrejvangelski4514

Excellent piece!
Comment from : @khodroulleik1885

Surprisingly, you can find it in China/HK
Comment from : @theodoroseidler7072

Good info I don't know what information you are willing to share here but what other markets besides China look under-valued? As always, thanks!
Comment from : @AnyangU

I'd love to see this analysis on the single stocks within the S&P 500 (and more) Certainly, you would gain statistical robustness with a larger N
Comment from : @antonionanni5893

Another masterpiece
Comment from : @bobbobertson7568

I wonder what CAPE PE ratio looks like for mid-cap or small-cap indexes
Comment from : @evarlast

What abiut STOXX 600 CAPE now @Sven Carlin?
Comment from : @Theo_Sot_9360

Schiller cape ratio is a good indicator for stable companies, but it doesn’t make sense for growing companies What is the sense to average earning of Nvidia for the last 10 years? brForward PE is much more appropriate to make this type of analysis
Comment from : @SpazzaGB

Glad you liked the graphs It's so cool to see this video as a long time viewer thanks for your analysis 🤠
Comment from : @williamhanlon9479

I'm using a quant modell to indentify cheap stocks JDI Peet's from the Netherlands looks very attractive What do you think?
Comment from : @christophkral191

Te di finanza 🫣 con i minatori d oro ho fatto il cinquanta percento in quindici giorni fatti all ippica
Comment from : @simonefiaschi9076

HDFC bank Indias top bank Trading at historic low PE ratio
Comment from : @surajsajeev1988

Hi I am happy to just DCA into the SNP consistently at the highs and the lows I don't try to time the market to get in and out and i don't pick individual stocks I like to keep things very simple, very little thinking involved I know I will do very well doing this over a 30 to 40 year period As long as your tough enough to stay the course and not sell when markets are crashing and just buy more at discounted prices I know I will do just fine if i just do this and that's good enough for me
Comment from : @darrenmcinerney2212

I would add here that inflation according to government is most likely underestimated, resulting in a higher current inflation adjusted shiller PE than real
Comment from : @phildurre9492

Hi Sven, why brazil markets are so low For ex : ewz
Comment from : @IshanMonga-y8b

That hairstyle tho
Comment from : @mihaib6235

You should also look at the Shiller Excess P/E ratio It’s the Shiller P/E’s yield, and subtracting the 10-year yield adjusted for inflation Periods of overvaluation flare up quite well using this ratio
Comment from : @TheRobbeGee